The post Bitcoin’s Chart Is Bullish, But On-Chain Data Urges Caution appeared first on Coindoo.

The Chart Tells One Story

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has staged an impressive recovery over the past two weeks, climbing from the $65,000 area all the way up to $75,000 before going back to $74,700 at the time of writing, reclaiming all three major moving averages in the process. The 50MA at $72,767, the 100MA at $70,374, and the 200MA at $70,199 are all sitting below current price and beginning to slope upward, which is a constructive technical development. RSI is sitting at 59.82, reflecting positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory.

At $75,000, price is now testing a key resistance zone that has capped multiple attempts over the past weeks. A clean break and hold above it would open the door to a continuation of the recovery. The short-term technical picture is the most constructive it has been since the broader downtrend began.

But the On-Chain Data Tells Another

While the chart looks encouraging, three on-chain indicators from CryptoQuant paint a more cautious picture, and taken together, they are difficult to ignore.

Whales Are Still Selling Into the Rally

The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance currently stands at 0.97, below the critical 1.0 threshold. This is significant because whales and institutional players predominantly operate on Binance, meaning the data from that exchange tends to reflect the true market direction more accurately than aggregate data across all exchanges.

What the 0.97 reading tells us is that while retail buyers are aggressively chasing the rally, FOMO-ing into each upward move — larger players are consistently supplying liquidity from above, using these rallies as distribution opportunities. The inability of buying pressure to push price sustainably higher despite strong retail demand is the clearest sign of this dynamic. Unless whales shift to strong buying behavior, selling pressure is likely to persist during any sideways or upward movement.

Price Is Still Below True Market Mean

The True Market Mean Price, a core market reference level that reflects the cost basis of active market participants, currently sits at $78,300. Bitcoin is trading roughly 5% below it, with the price-to-TMM ratio at approximately 0.95.

What makes this particularly important is not just that price is below TMM, but how it got there. Since losing that level, Bitcoin has been trading sideways beneath it rather than reclaiming it, which makes the breakdown more structural than temporary. The ratio is no longer at its weakest point, which is improvement. But improvement is not the same as recovery. Until Bitcoin reclaims the $78,300 TMM level and holds above it, the structure remains under pressure.

The Supply Squeeze Building Underneath

The third indicator tells a more bullish longer-term story. Sell-side liquidity has declined to approximately 8.53 million Bitcoin — a relatively low level compared to previous periods. At the same time, demand from accumulation addresses has increased notably to around 275,000 Bitcoin over the past 30 days, reflecting continued long-term buying behavior by investors.

Most significantly, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has dropped to around 30 months, a level that reflects a meaningful reduction in the supply available for sale. Historically, when this indicator declines, it signals a liquidity shortage in the market, increasing the likelihood of sharp price movements if demand continues to rise. The fact that this is happening while price holds relatively stable around $74,000 without strong selling pressure suggests the market may be in a supply absorption phase, transitioning from sellers to long-term holders, a phase that has historically preceded strong upward movements.

Improvement, Not Confirmation

Taking all of this into account, Bitcoin is at an interesting crossroads. The technical picture on the 4-hour chart is the most constructive it has been in months, price above all three MAs, RSI healthy, and a strong recovery from the lows. But the on-chain data introduces layers of caution that the chart alone does not show. Whales are still distributing. Price is still below TMM. And while the supply squeeze building underneath is a powerful longer-term argument, it has not yet translated into a confirmed breakout.

The $75,000 resistance and the $78,300 TMM level are the two lines that matter most right now. Until both are reclaimed and held, the current move is improvement, not confirmation. And still the second round of Iran–US ceasefire talks remains the key near-term catalyst.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Here’s What’s Actually Moving Crypto Markets This Week appeared first on Coindoo.

The most consequential story of the day is Tether’s structured bailout of Drift Protocol, the Solana-based trading platform hit by an approximately $285-295 million exploit on April 1 – an attack later linked to North Korean-affiliated actors. Tether’s response was not a straightforward rescue loan. The $127.5 million commitment, part of a broader ~$150 million package, is structured as a revenue-linked credit facility, meaning Tether’s exposure is tied directly to Drift’s future performance rather than paid out upfront as goodwill.

More importantly, the terms of the deal require Drift to abandon Circle’s USDC and adopt USDT as its core settlement layer going forward. This needs to be understood in the context of a wider stablecoin war. While Tether holds the largest supply overall, Circle’s USDC has been gaining ground in on-chain activity, partly because its regulatory positioning under frameworks like the EU’s MiCA gives institutional operators more comfort. Solana’s DeFi volume has been surging, and Circle was positioned to capture a meaningful share of it. By injecting $127.5 million into Drift at the moment of maximum vulnerability, Tether effectively forced USDC out of a key protocol and locked in its own dominance over that liquidity channel. Tether simultaneously moved around 951 BTC into reserves, reinforcing its balance sheet while executing the deal. What looks like a rescue is more accurately described as a defensive moat – built at a competitor’s expense, using a crisis as the entry point.

BlackRock Money Is Driving the Bitcoin Rally, Not Retail

Bitcoin’s approach toward $76,000 is being driven primarily by institutional inflows rather than retail enthusiasm. BlackRock’s spot ETF is pulling significant daily volumes, with broad buying pressure reaching across BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL. Total crypto market capitalization has crossed $2.56 trillion in the process.

What’s notable here is that on-chain data shows whale accumulation running in parallel with ETF demand, yet Bitcoin continues to lag behind equities in relative performance terms – the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh all-time highs this week as global liquidity expands and geopolitical risk premiums ease. Traders are reading the crypto rally as a downstream effect of that broader risk-on environment rather than anything crypto-specific. That reading is supported by a less-discussed Santiment data point: even as Bitcoin’s price climbs, its social dominance is actually declining relative to gold, silver, and real-world assets. Investors appear to be chasing tangibility – hard assets, yield-bearing instruments, and ETF wrappers that connect crypto to regulated financial infrastructure – rather than the asset itself. The rally is real, but the enthusiasm surrounding it is increasingly flowing toward gold and Bitcoin-linked equities rather than Bitcoin on its own terms.

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Bitcoin’s Chart Is Bullish, But On-Chain Data Urges Caution

BIP-361: The Proposal That Could Freeze Satoshi’s Bitcoin

The Bitcoin rally is happening against the backdrop of a serious and unresolved debate inside the developer community over BIP-361 – a proposal to freeze Bitcoin held in so-called quantum-vulnerable addresses if those holders don’t migrate to newer cryptographic formats within a five-year grace period. The proposal, associated with developers including Jameson Lopp, targets wallets where the public key is exposed on-chain, a category that includes early P2PK outputs and reused addresses.

Estimates of the affected supply range from 1.7 to 5.6 million BTC – nearly 30% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That figure includes approximately 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto’s original mining addresses. Proponents frame the proposal as a necessary precaution against future advances in quantum computing that could eventually compromise elliptic curve cryptography, giving a sufficiently powerful actor the ability to drain those wallets before their owners can respond.

Critics argue the proposal does something far more damaging in the near term: it puts an expiration date on coin ownership, transforming Bitcoin from an asset with unconditional finality into one that requires active maintenance to remain valid. Some community members have described BIP-361 as predatory precisely because it uses a speculative future threat to justify stripping immutability from wallets that have, by definition, never been touched or consented to any protocol change. The “your keys, your coins” principle doesn’t come with an asterisk about migration deadlines – and critics argue it shouldn’t. The argument is not settled, and it is unlikely to be settled quickly.

Coordinated Hype Runs Alongside the Institutional Story

Social data from Santiment also flagged coordinated social media activity around at least one crypto token, characterized by multilingual posts, FOMO-driven language, airdrop references, and high emoji density – the standard fingerprint of organized pump-and-dump promotion rather than organic interest. That activity ran alongside the legitimate institutional story, which is a pattern that tends to appear whenever Bitcoin momentum picks up and retail attention follows institutional money back into the market. The two narratives share a session but not a logic – one is driven by ETF flows and stablecoin geopolitics, the other by actors who need retail volume to exit.

What ties all of it together, though, is something happening well outside the crypto sector. Investors are increasingly optimistic about de-escalation in the Middle East – Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and a second round of talks between the US and Iran is reportedly underway. That geopolitical relief is doing real work in markets right now, restoring a risk-on sentiment that has been largely absent since the conflict escalated. It is a reminder that for all the noise around stablecoin wars, quantum freeze proposals, and AI rebrands, the biggest lever on crypto prices remains the same as it does for every other asset class – and it has nothing to do with on-chain activity.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $77,000 as Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz Again appeared first on Coindoo.

The moment Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced full commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the remaining ceasefire period, Bitcoin was already moving.

Araghchi was explicit: passage declared completely open, on the coordinated route already announced, for the full remaining ceasefire period. Markets read that kind of operational clarity differently than vague diplomatic signals, and the price action reflects it.

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) April 17, 2026

From a low of $74,700 in the early hours of April 17th, BTC pushed decisively through $76,000, reaching $77,300 at the time of writing. The move wasn’t gradual, it was the kind of sharp, volume-backed step up that happens when a specific catalyst lands and positioned buyers respond immediately.

Adding further weight to the picture, US-Iran talks are expected to resume in Islamabad, likely Sunday. A ceasefire holds a conflict in place. A negotiated framework starts to remove it.

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The chart and the headline are pointing in the same direction, but we have to wait until the end of second round ceasefire talks to see if it will change.

If Islamabad delivers even a moderate signal of progress, today’s move could prove to be more than a short-term reaction, it could mark the beginning of a more sustained trend. Holding above the 100-day moving average is the key technical confirmation: if the level flips from resistance to support, it opens the path for continuation higher.

The opposite is equally true. If Sunday’s talks fail to produce progress, today’s gains could evaporate just as quickly. Any fresh escalation, including renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon, could reverse the move entirely. In that scenario, price could head back toward the weekly low around $70,500.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Is on a Reversal Path But The Test is Still Ahead: Key Levels to Watch Now appeared first on Coindoo.

Downtrend Shifts Into Early Reversal

On the daily chart over the past seven months, we can clearly see a downtrend from the all-time high in October, which was reached above $125,000.

However, in recent days, a mini uptrend has started to form, breaking the resistance of the broader downtrend. At the same time, price has moved above the 50MA, while still sitting below the 100MA and attempting to break above it as well.

Volume Signals: Panic Selling Followed by Accumulation

This leads to the thesis that the $59,000–$60,000 level reached in February may have been the bottom. As seen on the volume bars, there is a large selling candle followed by a strong green candle. This usually signals massive panic selling, followed by bulls aggressively buying the dip.

After that, volume declines, which suggests that sellers are already exhausted. Typically, this drop in volatility is a sign of accumulation by investors.

Macro Context: Positivity With Caution

At the time of writing, there is clear positivity in the market, although it is not confirmed by strong buy volume. This is understandable, given the weeks of uncertainty around geopolitics, Fed rates, and the Iran–US conflict, which has now eased slightly after the news for second round of US–Iran ceasefire talks, following a first round that produced no results.

READ MORE:

Bitcoin Hit $76,000 and Pulled Back: Four Datasets Signal What Happens Next

Key Levels: Fibonacci Resistance and Moving Averages

On the TradingView chart, it is also clear that around the 0.236 Fibonacci level there is strong resistance, reinforced by the 100MA, adding confluence to that zone.

At the same time, during the second attempt to break the Fibonacci level and the 100MA, price managed to move above them but formed a double top.

If price moves down, the next support is at $69,800, where the 50MA is located. If that level fails to hold, the next support is around $67,500, aligned with the uptrend support line.

However, if price successfully breaks above the 100MA and the 0.236 Fibonacci level and manages to hold that area, it would be a strong signal that the move can continue to the upside.

Momentum: RSI Signals Growing Strength

RSI has moved up to 60, which is also a bullish signal. It reflects positive sentiment among traders and investors, while also approaching the overbought zone.

Positive Sentiment, But Fragile

Taking all of this into account, the market shows clear signs of positive sentiment, and it appears that the major Bitcoin sell-offs are over for now. At the same time, caution remains, given the ongoing macro uncertainty.

As seen over the past six weeks, every major piece of news – positive or negative – related to the war has shifted investor sentiment and moved Bitcoin in the opposite direction within hours. For now, the conflict is still relatively recent, so market participants are reacting more to short-term developments, while still trying to position for what comes next.

At the same time, since the beginning of the war, Bitcoin has been outperforming gold, silver, and stocks, which adds another layer to the current narrative. It shows that despite volatility and headline-driven moves, capital is still favoring Bitcoin on a relative basis, even as overall sentiment remains cautious.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Outperforms Gold, Silver, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Since the Iran War Began appeared first on Coindoo.

Bitcoin is trading at $74,740 at the time of writing, up 16.7% since the Iran war began on February 28. Over the same period, gold lost 10%, silver fell 15.58%, the S&P 500 gained less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq added 1.91%.

The six weeks that produced those numbers include the US-Israel strikes on Iran, the assassination of Khamenei, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamabad talks collapse, and a US naval blockade. Every event that historically sends money into safe havens sent Bitcoin higher instead.

Gold didn’t just underperform. It moved in the opposite direction.

What the Chart Confirms

According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin’s price now sits $2,652 above the 50 SMA at $72,091, and for the first time since the April 12 crash, that average is curling upward. Through the selloff it fell. Through the recovery it flattened. Now it’s rising. That’s a structural shift, not a one-session observation.

The RSI at 71.32 with the signal line at 71.35 has fully converged, the signal line has caught up and crossed marginally above the RSI. In overbought territory that means the speed of the move has normalized completely. Price is holding the range without extending it. Consolidation, not distribution, but the next leg needs a new catalyst to begin.

Why the Comparison Matters

The standard narrative for Bitcoin during geopolitical stress is that it behaves like a risk asset, selling off when equities sell off, recovering when equities recover. The February 28 to April 14 period breaks that narrative cleanly. Opposite to crypto critics expectations, equities went nowhere. Gold and silver, the assets that are supposed to absorb geopolitical fear, lost double digits. Bitcoin gained 17%.

Three explanations are possible and none are mutually exclusive. Institutional allocation is rotating out of gold and into Bitcoin as a harder, more portable store of value. The Iran war disrupted physical commodity markets, gold and silver move through supply chains the conflict directly affected, while Bitcoin has no supply chain to disrupt. Or the market has decided that Bitcoin’s scarcity argument is more durable than gold’s in a world where the Strait of Hormuz can be closed overnight.

The data doesn’t identify which explanation is correct. It identifies that the decoupling happened during the most sustained geopolitical stress event in the Middle East since 2003.

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What’s Next?

If the decoupling holds through a confirmed second round of ceasefire talks, Bitcoin extends the narrative advantage it has built over six weeks, 17% while everything else went sideways or down is a number that rewrites institutional allocation models. The rising 50 SMA and a consolidating RSI give that extension a technical base to build from.

If the blockade produces a genuine risk-off shock before talks are confirmed, not the negotiating kind of uncertainty the last six weeks delivered, but the shooting kind, Bitcoin faces the test the comparison chart hasn’t yet run. Gold and silver are already down 10–15%. A sudden escalation would reveal whether Bitcoin’s decoupling is structural or whether it was positioned correctly for one specific type of geopolitical stress and not another.

The distinction matters more than any price level. Bitcoin at current levels above a rising 50 SMA is a technical setup. BTC outperforming gold by many percentage points during an active war is a thesis. The next weeks will stress-test which one is doing the actual work.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Surges Above $76,000, Ethereum Breaks $2,400: Here is Why appeared first on Coindoo.

Two catalysts landed on April 14 and the crypto market priced both simultaneously. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index rose 4.0% year-on-year in March, significantly below the market forecast of 4.6% and above February’s 3.4% reading. Lower than expected inflation data removes pressure on the Fed and sends risk assets higher.

At the same time, diplomatic signals around US-Iran talks continued to build, Iran’s president said talks would continue, Pakistan offered to host a second round, and Trump said Iranian officials called wanting a deal. Geopolitical de-escalation and softer inflation in the same session is not a combination the market takes lightly.

Bitcoin responded first. Price broke through $75,000 and reached $76,024 at the time of writing, the highest level since before the March crash, up 6.07% in 24 hours. Ethereum followed with a 9.04% gain to $2,414, extending its weekly outperformance of Bitcoin to 16.46% versus 11.81%.

The Charts

Bitcoin’s 50 SMA at $72,476 is now $3,548 below price and rising. The RSI at 78.19 with the signal line at 70.45 shows momentum still leading, a 7.74 point gap means the move has not yet normalized.

Ethereum’s RSI at 78.34 with signal line at 75.70 tells the same story with a tighter gap of 2.64 points, momentum leading but closer to convergence than Bitcoin’s reading.

Both assets are deep in overbought territory. Both SMAs are rising. The structure is bullish on the hourly timeframe and the RSI readings say the move isn’t finished — but territory above 78 on the RSI has historically preceded short consolidations before continuation rather than straight extensions.

The Broader Market

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Zcash is the session’s outlier and the number that doesn’t fit the narrative, up just 2.03% today but 37.93% on the week, a move that began before either of today’s catalysts and has not been explained by them. That’s a separate story running underneath the broader repricing.

The repricing itself was universal. Like we already said Ethereum led the top assets with a 9% surge, followed by Dogecoin at 5.42%, Chainlink at 5.10%, Hyperliquid at 4.61%, XRP at 4.02%, and BNB at 3.49%. The CMC20 index gained 5.50% in 24 hours.

The move was not asset-specific. Every corner of the market repriced on the same two signals.

READ MORE:

Bitcoin Outperforms Gold, Silver, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Since the Iran War Began

What if

If a second round of US-Iran talks is confirmed and has good results before the ceasefire expires and inflation continues to undershoot forecasts, the two catalysts that drove today’s move become a sustained macro tailwind rather than a one-session repricing. Bitcoin above $76,000 with leading RSI readings on both major assets has technical room before the next meaningful resistance.

If the ceasefire expires without a confirmed second meeting, or bad results and PPI’s undershoot proves a one-month anomaly, today’s move gets re-examined as a liquidity event rather than a structural shift. RSI readings above 78 on both BTC and ETH make the assets vulnerable to a sharp pullback on any negative headline, the higher the RSI climbs without consolidation, the steeper the correction when it comes.

The PPI undershoot is the more durable of the two catalysts. Geopolitical signals can reverse overnight. Inflation data prints once a month and the March reading was 60 basis points below forecast, that gap doesn’t get revised away.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Hit $76,000 and Pulled Back: Four Datasets Signal What Happens Next appeared first on Coindoo.

Bitcoin is trading at $73,975 at the time of writing on April 15, down 0.49% on the day and $2,025 below the $76,000 peak reached on April 14. The 50 SMA at $73,458 is rising and now $517 below price at the 1h chart, the average that was resistance two weeks ago is now the floor the pullback is testing.

The RSI at 47.01 with the signal line at 52.95 has rolled over from the overbought readings of April 14. Signal line above RSI in neutral territory means momentum has shifted from the buyers to neither side. The structure is not broken. It is pausing.

What Short-Term Holders Are Doing

The pause has a mechanism. On April 14, short-term holder profit sent to exchanges reached 63,000 BTC, the highest reading since January 14, when the same metric hit 44,800 BTC and preceded a price decline. The current reading is 40% larger, according to data from CryptoQuant.

The Binance flow data by holder age makes the source of that selling specific. The 1D–1W cohort, holders who accumulated Bitcoin within the past week, sent nearly 2,000 BTC to Binance on April 14. Freshly accumulated coins returning to exchanges at the top of a rally is not long-term holder distribution. It is recent buyers locking in gains at the first meaningful opportunity since the move began. CryptoQuant’s reading is precise: the rally is still intact, but it is now meeting its first meaningful round of short-term distribution.

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The ETF Picture

While short-term holders were sending coins to exchanges, institutional flows were moving in the opposite direction. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $411.50M in net inflows on April 14, bringing cumulative total net inflows to $56.86B. Seven of the thirteen tracked ETFs recorded zero inflows — the day’s buying was concentrated. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $213.83M, more than half the total. Ark & 21Shares ARKB added $113.12M, with Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Bitwise, VanEck, and Grayscale accounting for the remaining $84.55M between them.

Two things happened simultaneously on April 14. Short-term holders sent 63,000 BTC to exchanges. Institutional buyers absorbed $411.50M through regulated products. The price fell $2,025. That gap between what retail sold and what institutions bought is where the current price sits.

The Counter-Signal the ETF Data Contains

Santiment’s analysis of the ETF flow history adds a layer the inflow headline doesn’t capture. The Monday before Tuesday’s rally, April 13, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $297.3M in outflows, a five-week high. Per Santiment’s historical framework, heavy ETF outflows correspond with buying opportunities and heavy inflows correspond with price tops. The April 13 outflow read as a buy signal. Price rallied to $76,000 the following day.

The historical sell signals ran significantly larger: $1.18B inflows on July 10, 2025 preceded a top, $1.21B on October 6, 2025 marked the ATH, and $840.6M on January 14, 2026 preceded a decline. Tuesday’s $411.50M sits below all three thresholds. The counter-signal is present. It is not yet at the level that has mattered before.

What the Combined Picture Shows

Three datasets point in the same direction and one points against it. Short-term holders distributing 63,000 BTC, freshly accumulated coins returning to Binance, and RSI rolling over from overbought all say the same thing: the immediate momentum from the move to $76,000 is being sold into by the participants who rode it. The 50 SMA holding at $73,458 says the structure that produced that move has not broken.

The ETF inflow data is the dataset that doesn’t fit cleanly into either reading. $411.50M in institutional buying on the same day short-term holders distributed at the highest rate since January is a tension the price action is resolving in real time. If the SMA holds and institutional inflows continue at this pace, the short-term distribution gets absorbed and the structure builds a higher base. If the SMA breaks and ETF inflows slow, the condition that preceded every meaningful correction in Santiment’s dataset, the January 14 analogue becomes relevant.

The lean is toward the SMA holding. The 63,000 BTC sent to exchanges is large in absolute terms but it is coming from the most reactive cohort, holders of days, not months. The long-term holder data shows no equivalent distribution. Stronger hands remain inactive. That distinction is what separates a healthy consolidation from the start of a reversal.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Strategy Buys $1 Billion in Bitcoin as Price Holds Below $72,000 appeared first on Coindoo.

Strategy disclosed on April 12 that it acquired 13,927 BTC at an average of $71,902, a $1 billion purchase made on the same day Bitcoin shed more than $3,000 and broke back below its 50-period moving average. The position is currently underwater by $1,044 per coin.

Total holdings now stand at 780,897 BTC at a blended average of $75,577, for a total outlay of $59.02 billion. At the current price, the entire book sits at around $4,700 per coin in the red.

Strategy has acquired 13,927 BTC for ~$1.00 billion at ~$71,902 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 5.6% YTD 2026. As of 4/12/2026, we hodl 780,897 $BTC acquired for ~$59.02 billion at ~$75,577 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRChttps://t.co/7y8pwgdTdk

— Strategy (@Strategy) April 13, 2026

The week that preceded the buy looked different. Bitcoin surged from $67,500 on April 8 to $73,800 by April 10 thanks to Iran-US ceasefire talks, with the rising 50 SMA tracking the rally from below and providing the floor across three sessions.

April 12 ended that. The sharpest red candle of the week printed on the heaviest sell volume since the rally began, breaking price back below the 50 SMA in a single session. The average that had been rising throughout the rally is now curling downward at $71,710, sitting $853 above current price as resistance, not support.

That is the level Strategy needs to reclaim to break even on this tranche.

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The RSI bottomed near 28 on April 12, the most oversold reading of the move, and has recovered to 42.43, with the signal line trailing at 40.08. RSI above its signal line is the early shape of stabilization. But 42 with a falling SMA directly overhead is not a recovery setup. It is a market that stopped selling without finding a reason to buy.

Price has since compressed into a $500 range around $70,500–$71,000. Volume has dropped off. The chart is waiting for a catalyst the RSI cannot supply.

If buyers step in or good news on Iran war appear and price reclaims $71,710 with conviction, the compression of the last 24 hours starts to look like accumulation. The RSI has room before overbought. Strategy’s latest tranche moves back to breakeven and the falling SMA becomes a resolved problem rather than an open one.

If the SMA holds as resistance and price breaks below $70,000, a level untested in this move, Strategy’s $59 billion book faces its deepest drawdown since the buying program began. The RSI structure would reset, and $70,000 becomes the new ceiling rather than the floor.

The evidence leans cautiously toward stabilization. The RSI recovered from 28 without retesting the low. Volume dried up rather than accelerating. Compression after a sharp drop more often precedes a retest upward than a continuation downward. But the 50 SMA at $71,710 is not a small ask, it needs to be reclaimed, not just approached.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The post Strategy Buys $1 Billion in Bitcoin as Price Holds Below $72,000 appeared first on Coindoo.

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The post Bitcoin Reclaims $73,000: The Bull-Bear Indicator Says the Bottom Isn’t In Yet appeared first on Coindoo.

Bitcoin is trading at $73,023 at the time of writing, up 2.6% on the day and back above the 50 SMA for the first time since the April 12 crash. The recovery from $70,500 to current price covers $2,500 in under twelve hours. Volume picked up through the move. The 50 SMA, which sat as resistance at $71,625 this morning, is now $1,397 below price.

The RSI tells the speed of it. At 28 on April 12, it was the most oversold reading of the week. At 70.80 now, it has just entered overbought territory, the signal line trails at 52.68, a gap that reflects how fast the move came rather than how sustainable it is. This is the sharpest RSI recovery on the hourly chart since the rally began April 8. The SMA reclaim is real. The question is what it cost to get there this fast.

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What the On-Chain Data Says

The CryptoQuant Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is below zero, bear phase, not Extreme Bear. That distinction matters more than it sounds. The indicator combines MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR against the 365-day average, and historically the deepest accumulation phases only emerged when it entered Extreme Bear territory: maximum stress, forced selling, capitulation. None of that has happened. The current reading is bear phase without full capitulation, which is another way of saying the macro bottom isn’t confirmed yet.

Tonight’s $2,500 price recovery hasn’t changed that reading. The hourly chart moved. The composite profitability picture of every Bitcoin holder did not.

Two Scenarios

If Bitcoin holds above the 50 SMA through a consolidation between $72,000 and $73,000, which the overbought RSI makes more likely than a straight run higher, and then pushes through the $73,500 resistance from April 10–11, the technical picture completes a full recovery of last week’s crash. The structure becomes bullish on the hourly timeframe regardless of what the macro indicator shows.

If price stalls below $73,500 and the RSI rolls over from overbought without printing a higher high, tonight’s recovery becomes a dead cat within the bear phase the Bull-Bear indicator already identified. A failed retest at that level would be the price chart catching up to what the on-chain data has been showing all week.

The lean is toward consolidation before continuation rather than a straight reversal. The RSI moved 42 points in twelve hours. That kind of speed typically precedes a pause. The SMA reclaim matters, whether it holds through that pause is what the next 24 hours will settle.

$73,023 is not $73,800. The Bull-Bear indicator is not at zero. Both gaps are small. Neither is close enough to ignore.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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The post Bitcoin Hits $74,000 After Renewed Optimism on US-Iran Ceasefire Talks appeared first on Coindoo.

Bitcoin pushed to $74,380 on April 14 as two diplomatic signals emerged overnight that the US-Iran ceasefire process might continue. Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran is “prepared to continue talks” with the United States. Pakistan separately proposed hosting a second round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires, according to Aljazeera. Neither statement confirms new talks have been scheduled. Both confirm the door Islamabad left open has not been closed.

The market priced the direction, not the details. Bitcoin added 4.61% in 24 hours, clearing last week’s resistance ceiling and reaching a session high of $74,504 — the highest print since before the April 12 crash.

What the Chart Shows

The 50 SMA sits at $71,836, now $2,543 below price. A week ago it was overhead resistance. The breakout candle that carried price through printed the highest green volume of the entire week, the move was bought, not drifted into.

The RSI at 71.35 with the signal line at 69.70 tells a different story than last night’s reading. Then, the signal line trailed at 52.68, an 18-point gap reflecting a move that had come too fast. Now the gap is 1.65 points. The signal line has caught up. Momentum is maturing rather than accelerating, and consolidation near current levels is more likely than an immediate extension toward $75,000.

The Broader Market

The optimism moved everything. Ethereum led the majors with a 7.57% gain to $2,364 – the largest single-day move among the top assets and a signal that the repricing went beyond Bitcoin, according to CoinMarketCap. Hyperliquid added 7.14% to $44.60, Solana 4.30% to $85.72, BNB 3.17% to $615.61, and XRP 2.87% to $1.36, reclaiming the level the funding rate flip identified as the line to watch yesterday. The CMC20 index gained 5.05% in 24 hours.

The move was not Bitcoin-specific. It was a repricing of geopolitical risk across the entire market.

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Two Scenarios

If Pakistan’s proposal is accepted and a second round of talks is confirmed before the ceasefire expires, the market has more optimism to price. Bitcoin’s next technical reference above $74,504 is the $75,000 psychological level, beyond which last cycle’s all-time high territory begins. The RSI consolidating near 70 rather than rolling over would be the technical condition that supports that move.

If the ceasefire expires without a second meeting, Iran said prepared, not confirmed, the diplomatic catalyst that drove today’s move loses its foundation. Price at $74,380 with a maturing RSI and no follow-through on the talks is a more vulnerable position than $74,380 with a deal on the calendar. The April 12 low at $70,500 and the 50 SMA at $71,836 are the levels that matter on the way back down.

The lean is toward consolidation in the $73,000–$74,500 range while the diplomatic picture clarifies. The market moved on two statements. What converts those statements into sustained price support is a confirmed meeting and real development, not a proposal.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-hits-74000-after-renewed-optimism-on-us-iran-ceasefire-talks/